Latin American Growth in the 21st Century: The "Commodities Boom" That Wasn't

Latin America's economic growth rebound in the 2000s is often attributed to a "commodities boom," which implies that the region's growth was stimulated by sizable increases in the price of commodity exports. This paper looks at whether the data support such a conclusion. It finds that there is no statistically significant relationship between the increase in the terms of trade (TOT) for Latin American countries and their GDP growth. There is, however, a positive relationship between the TOT increase and an improvement in the current account balance. It may be that this allowed countries to avoid balance of payments crises or constraints

Has Austerity Worked in Spain?

Since 2011 Spain has pursued a set of economic policies for recovery based on internal currency devaluation, labor market reform, fiscal consolidation, and structural and deregulatory reforms such as the Market Unity Law, which are based on the idea of boosting growth through increased efficiency. Unemployment is currently at 21.6 percent, and 47.7 percent for youth, with about 60 percent of the unemployed out of work for more than one year. The number of people classified as at risk of poverty and social exclusion has risen with the unemployment rate, from 10.4 million people in 2007 to 13.4 million in 2014.This report looks at Spain's recent economic history, both before and after its recession, with a focus on employment, contributions to GDP growth, and the current account balance

Policy Alternatives for a Return to Full Employment in Spain

With Spain's official unemployment rate at 26 percent, and the economy projected to contract by 1.3 percent this year, it is difficult to make the case for continued austerity that could push a barely growing economy back into recession. Yet the government is committed to further fiscal tightening, on the grounds that it has no choice.This paper will show that there are various feasible alternatives that can restore full employment to Spain by 2018, as well as other possibilities that could accomplish this goal even sooner

Political Forecasting? The IMF's Flawed Growth Projections for Argentina and Venezuela

This report examines the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projections for economic growth for Argentina and Venezuela in recent years. It shows that the IMF consistently made large errors in overestimating Argentina's GDP growth for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002, during the country's 1998-2002 depression, and large underestimates for the years 2003-2006, as Argentina's economy grew rapidly. The paper also notes the IMF's repeated large errors in underestimating Venezuela's GDP growth for the years since 2004

Are Shorter Work Hours Good for the Environment? A Comparison of U.S. and European Energy Consumption

European employees work fewer hours per year -- and use less energy per person -- than their American counterparts. This report compares the European and U.S. models of labor productivity and energy consumption. It finds that if all countries worked as many hours per week as U.S. workers do, the world would consume 15 to 30 percent more energy by 2050 than it would by following Europe's model

"Illiteracy" Revisited: What Ortega and Rodríguez Read in the Household Survey

This paper challenges the conclusions of an econometric analysis by Daniel Ortega and Francisco Rodríguez on the effects on literacy of the Misión Robinson program in Venezuela. Their analysis concludes "most of our estimates of program impact represent qualitatively small and rarely statistically significant effects of Robinson, while some point estimates are actually negative." This CEPR paper shows that the econometric analysis used by Ortega and Rodríguez does not provide statistical evidence regarding the size of the Misión Robinson national literacy program in Venezuela, partly because the Household Survey data on which the authors relied are too crude a measure to make such an estimate. In addition, the statistical tests the authors used are not appropriate to test (falsify) the hypothesis that the program was a large-scale program.Venezuela, social programs, literacy, Latin America

Are Shorter Work Hours Good for the Environment? A Comparison of U.S. and European Energy Consumption

European employees work fewer hours per year -- and use less energy per person -- than their American counterparts. This report compares the European and U.S. models of labor productivity and energy consumption. It finds that if all countries worked as many hours per week as U.S. workers do, the world would consume 15 to 30 percent more energy by 2050 than it would by following Europe's model.

Political Forecasting? The IMF's Flawed Growth Projections for Argentina and Venezuela

This report examines the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) projections for economic growth for Argentina and Venezuela in recent years. It shows that the IMF consistently made large errors in overestimating Argentina's GDP growth for the years 2000, 2001 and 2002, during the country's 1998-2002 depression, and large underestimates for the years 2003-2006, as Argentina's economy grew rapidly. The paper also notes the IMF's repeated large errors in underestimating Venezuela's GDP growth for the years since 2004.

A Shrinking Market: Projections for U.S. Imports

Will developing countries continue to face an expanding U.S. market for their imports? This report projects that the annual value of U.S. imports, measured in non-dollar currencies, can actually be expected to contract over the next decade -- in contrast to its rapid growth over the last decade.

Inflation Experiences in Latin America, 2007-2008

This paper looks briefly at the recent inflation experiences of ten Latin American countries: Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, and Bolivia. The authors construct a core inflation index (excluding food and energy), and look at three-month changes in both headline and core inflation. The paper focuses on the increase in inflation from April 2007 to July 2008, driven by a surge in food and energy prices worldwide. These prices have since dropped considerably. The authors conclude that macroeconomic policy that does not take into account the temporary nature of these price shocks may result in an unnecessary slowing of growth, with reduced output and employment.Latin America, Inflation